Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner reveal the habits, mindsets, and methods of individuals who are extraordinarily accurate in predicting future events—not by using crystal balls, but by thinking clearly, updating frequently, and practicing actively. These people—Superforecasters—outperform intelligence analysts, experts, and pundits, often with access to less information.
My Key Learnings:
1. The Myth of the Expert
- Most so-called “experts” are terrible at forecasting.
- Tetlock’s 20-year study found that many experts do worse than chance.
- Expertise is not enough—how you think is what counts.
2. Who Are Superforecasters?
The difference between a good forecaster and a bad one is not access to secret information—it’s how they think.
- Not clairvoyants, not insiders.
- Often normal, curious people who use a disciplined process.
- They:
- Think probabilistically
- Update their views frequently
- Are open-minded and intellectually humble
- Love feedback and tracking accuracy